Is the China-U.S. London Talks Progressing Smoothly? Copper Prices Bet on Thawing Trade Relations [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

     SMM June 11 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,754.5/mt. It held up well at the start of trading, reaching a high of $9,785.0/mt during the fluctuating session, before declining steadily to a low of $9,720.5/mt. It eventually closed at $9,725.0/mt, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 13,107 lots and an open interest of 286,326 lots. The overall trend fluctuated initially before showing a downward trajectory. The overnight SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 79,150 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 79,290 yuan/mt during the session and a low of 79,030 yuan/mt at the end of the session. It eventually closed at 79,030 yuan/mt, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 21,972 lots and an open interest of 207,858 lots. The overall trend surged initially before fluctuating downward. On the macro front, Chinese and US economic and trade officials continued their second day of consultations in London, UK, on June 10. US Commerce Secretary Lutnick reportedly said on the 10th that the negotiations were "progressing smoothly." According to informed sources, during this round of consultations, the US was considering lifting a series of recently imposed restrictions in areas such as chip design software, jet engine parts, ethane, and nuclear materials. Most of these measures were introduced in the past few weeks amid renewed tensions and escalations in China-US relations, on the condition that China eases restrictions on rare earth exports. Additionally, it was learned that India and the US are expected to reach an interim trade agreement before month-end, and the US and Mexico are close to reaching an agreement on steel import tariffs. Amid uncertainties in trade prospects, market sentiment remains cautious, with copper prices closing slightly lower. On the fundamental side, high copper prices have dampened downstream procurement sentiment, with market trading activity remaining weak. Overall, with the announcement of the China-US talks yet to be released, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at highs before the announcement is made.